The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for this year and next year – from 3.1% to 3.2% in 2014 and from 2.7% to 2.8% in 2015.
With expected growth of 3.2%, 2014 will be the first year since 2007 that growth will have exceeded 3%. This is largely due to stronger employment figures and higher expected growth for Q3 and Q4 2014 than previously forecast in May.
The business group, which represents thousands of companies across the UK, is forecasting a moderate slowdown in growth from 2015, with its prediction for 2016 remaining unchanged at 2.5%. This reflects a deceleration in household consumption and falling public spending as a share of GDP.
BCC Director General John Longworth says we must do everything possible to ensure the strong growth in 2014 is not a ‘flash in the pan’. He calls the expected slowdown in 2015 and 2016 a ‘warning sign’ for the UK, which is currently too reliant on consumer spending as a growth driver.
“Our forecast confirms that Britain has become one of the fastest-growing developed economies," he said. "We are leading, rather than following, other major economies when it comes to short-term growth. Businesses up and down the country should be congratulated for their hard work and determination in driving the UK recovery despite a number of international and domestic challenges.
“The task at hand is to ensure that the stellar 2014 growth is not a flash in the pan. We need to invest and export more, innovate, and build. It is disappointing that we have downgraded export growth for the next two years as a strong international trade performance is key if we are to steer away from a reliance on consumer spending. While business investment is forecast to grow strongly over the next three years, it will be growing from a low base. To sustain investment momentum into the future, the government and the Bank of England need to give businesses the confidence they need to invest by keeping official interest rates low for as long as possible. Any future rate rises must be gradual and modest.
“The UK must aim higher than accepting growth rates that simply go back to where they were before the recession, or worse – fall even lower. If we are to maintain a world-leading growth performance, we need a long-term partnership between government and business – with ministers unblocking infrastructure projects and improving access to finance so firms across the UK can invest, create jobs and export. We have a wealth of impressive and enterprising businesses in the UK, and there is no reason why a 3% growth rate should be the height of our ambitions.”
David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC, said despite upgrading GDP forecasts there were signs that the UK economy will see a slight slowdown in the pace of growth from next year.
"This reflects a deceleration in household consumption, and falling public spending as a share of GDP," he explaind. "Together, these factors will more than offset the increased contributions to GDP growth from investment and trade.
“We predict strong growth of 0.8% per quarter in the second half of this year. But as interest rates start to rise in 2015, indebted households with mortgages will face increased financial pressures, and much weaker household consumption will act as a drag on growth. To maintain our world leading performance, we may have to look to other sources of growth. Greater efforts to boost exports and investment, and avoiding premature interest rate increases, will ensure that the recovery is sustainable and that the pace of growth can strengthen in the future.
“The UK recovery remains on course and we are now outperforming other major economies. But many potential obstacles remain up ahead. Geo-political uncertainties such as Ukraine and the Middle East and sluggishness in the eurozone will remain serious challenges for some time. It is therefore doubly important to address the risks that we can tackle, such as the UK’s huge current account deficit. To continue driving the recovery, businesses need a stable and supportive environment that encourages enterprise, with low interest rates.”
