The September RIBA Future Workload Index stands at -2, falling into negative territory for the first time since January, and continuing the downward trend seen since July.
A negative balance indicates that, overall, practices expect workloads to decrease during the next three months.
Twenty-one per cent of practices anticipate an increase in workloads, while 23% expect a decline. Fifty-six per cent expect workloads to remain stable.
This negative index figure is the result of a worsening outlook among smaller practices (those with 1 to 10 staff). Medium and large- sized practices (those with more than 10 staff) remain firmly optimistic about future workloads.
The regional picture has also deteriorated this month, with several regions now anticipating falling workloads.
Looking at the outlook by sector, the Commercial sector has softened slightly, but remains comparatively strong. The outlook for the three other monitored sectors has become negative, with the outlook for the Private Housing sector continuing to deteriorate.
Current workloads remain lower than a year ago. The average practice workload has decreased by 9% over the past twelve months.
The positive outlook for both permanent and temporary staffing levels has continued this month.
Both the Permanent (+2) and Temporary (+5) Staffing Indices are positive, suggesting that despite softer short-term workload forecasts, practices continue to plan for stability and future growth. You can find a summary on the page linked above.
Adrian Malleson, RIBA Head of Economic Research and Analysis, said: “September’s Future Trends data shows a profession with a more cautious outlook. The overall workload index has fallen into negative territory for the first time since January, standing at -2. Smaller practices, particularly those reliant on private housing work, are feeling the pressure of a subdued market and continued economic uncertainty. In contrast, medium and large practices remain confident, with a combined workload balance of +39 – the highest recorded this year.
“Commentary from practices highlights weak client confidence, high borrowing costs, and planning delays as persistent challenges. However, staffing levels remain stable, suggesting underlying confidence in longer-term prospects.”
RIBA is aware that smaller and emerging practices are navigating particularly difficult conditions. The Small and Emerging Practices network provides targeted support, resources, and peer connections to help practices build resilience, share expertise, and identify opportunities for growth.
Over the coming months, the network will focus on improving access to business support, practical guidance on procurement and regulation, and shared learning around sustainable practice models.
RIBA will also shortly publish findings from the annual Business Benchmarking survey – a detailed overview of the profession’s financial and operational performance. This data will provide additional insight into how practices of all sizes are responding to current market conditions, and where opportunities for future growth may lie.
