Glenigan | A Hubexo Product, one of the construction industry’s leading insight and intelligence experts, releases its widely anticipated UK Construction Industry Forecast 2026-2028.
Predominantly focused on underlying starts (<£100m in value), unless otherwise stated, it contains a comprehensive overview of the current state of the construction industry.
Glenigan’s Summer 2026 Forecast is published against the backdrop of an extraordinary series of domestic and international events, which have shaken global markets to their foundations and rocked the entire UK business and industry landscape.
Construction was already one of the hardest hit sectors. Yet when Glenigan released its last Forecast in the back end of 2025, it had been looking forward to a relatively stable 12 months with modest recovery. Still, no one could have predicted what would happen over the past six months and, with little sign of these phenomena resolving any time soon, figures have had to be revised.
However, the good news is the impact is expected to be short-lived. Glenigan’s latest numbers predict that, whilst the year will end in negative growth of -1%, this will be offset by an 11% activity increase in 2027, and 4% in 2028 (+13% on 2025). This is dependent upon a gradual re-strengthening of the UK economy which, although fragile, appears to be withstanding considerable external pressures.
Considering the Forecast’s findings, Glenigan’s Economics Director, Allan Wilen, says, “It’s been a turbulent few months for the UK construction sector, with investors and developers reassessing and rescheduling planned projects. However, the economic outlook is expected to improve once the current fog of war dissipates, supporting a strengthening in construction activity from 2027 with an uplift across almost all private and public sector verticals.
He continues, “As our Forecast shows, there are some particularly exciting growth areas as Government funding is released and investor appetite starts to return to the market. Contractors will need to be quick off the mark as more favourable conditions are finally felt. There will be no time for hanging around and the quicker the sector’s reaction, the sooner momentum will return and stick.”
Looking at the highlights from the Forecast, despite the here and now remaining tough, key drivers for growth over the next two years include increased consumer spending and higher public sector investment, as well as an expansion in infrastructure and utilities work.
Housebuilding experienced a disappointing start to 2026 after a lacklustre second half of 2025, so it’s little surprise that both the private (-5%) and social (-3%) verticals will finish the year in the red. Whilst the immediate outlook is unavoidably subdued, both are set for a solid revival in the remainder of the Forecast period.
Private housebuilding is expected to rebound 13% in 2027 and by 5% in 2028, this is driven by an expected decrease in borrowing costs and improved consumer confidence. Simultaneously, supply-side conditions should ease as regulatory bottlenecks loosen, and planning reforms increase site availability.
On the social front, a more conservative 8% lift is forecast for 2027 and 4% in 2028. Increased Government funding as well as changes to the Social Housing Rent Cap are set to support investment, enabling social landlords to bring forward more projects over the Forecast period. Additionally, an acceleration in approvals by the Building Safety Regulator (BSR) is likely to support the delivery of more high-rise apartment schemes.
The above provides a topline summary of the contents of Glenigan’s Spring/Summer 2026 Construction Forecast, to request your copy visit https://www.glenigan.com/market-analysis/reports/
